Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
